Center for Business and Economic Research - Ball State University

Indiana Economic Outlook 2021

Published February 16, 2021

The annual Indiana Economic Outlook luncheon was presented virtually on February 16, 2021 to our public audience.

 

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Author: Michael J. Hicks

Economic Outlook 2021 Forecast Series

Published February 5, 2021

The Economic Outlook 2021 Forecast Series was presented virtually to First Merchants audiences in January and February 2021. 

The U.S., State, and Regional Forecasts (PDF)

  • Chicagoland, IL-IN 
    IL counties: Cook; IN counties: Jasper, Lake, Porter
  • Columbus, OH and Ohio Forecast
  • Detroit, MI-Toledo, OH 
    MI counties: Lenawee, Monroe, Wayne; OH counties: Fulton, Lucas, Ottawa
  • East Central IN 
    Counties: Delaware, Fayette, Henry, Jay, Madison, Randolph, Union, Wayne
  • Fort Wayne, IN 
    Counties: Adams, Allen, DeKalb, Huntington, Noble, Wells, Whitely
  • Indianapolis, IN 
    Counties: Hamilton, Hendricks, Johnson, Marion, Morgan, Shelby
  • Lafayette, IN 
    Counties: Benton, Carroll, Cass, Clinton, Fountain, Howard, Montgomery, Tippecanoe, Tipton, Warren, White

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Authors: Amanda Weinstein, Dagney Faulk, Srikant Devaraj, Michael J. Hicks

COVID-19 Response: Community Resiliency in the Hoosier State—Implementing the “Roadmap to Reopen Indiana”

Published November 10, 2020

The survey results presented in this brief suggest that local governments were proactive in implementing measures intended to protect the health and safety of their staff and the public, enhance facility cleaning and sanitation, and facilitate social distancing.

COVID-19 Response: Community Resiliency in the Hoosier State (Policy Brief Series) 

To better understand the varied effects of COVID-19 in communities throughout Indiana, a survey of local government officials was conducted by Accelerate Indiana Municipalities (AIM), the Association of Indiana Counties (AIC), and Ball State University researchers at the Bowen Center for Public Affairs, CBER, and Indiana Communities Institute.

The purpose of these policy briefs is to provide government policymakers and community decision-makers with more comprehensive and in-depth data on budgetary/fiscal stress, technology, administration, public health, and community health as decisions are made regarding resource allocation and policy development.

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Tags: covid, disaster impact, government, indiana, pandemic, state and local government

Author: Charles D. Taylor

COVID-19 Response: Community Resiliency in the Hoosier State—Fiscal Impacts on Local Government

Published November 10, 2020

This brief dicusses the fiscal impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the severity of expected cuts among Indiana local governments.

COVID-19 Response: Community Resiliency in the Hoosier State (Policy Brief Series) 

To better understand the varied effects of COVID-19 in communities throughout Indiana, a survey of local government officials was conducted by Accelerate Indiana Municipalities (AIM), the Association of Indiana Counties (AIC), and Ball State University researchers at the Bowen Center for Public Affairs, CBER, and Indiana Communities Institute.

The purpose of these policy briefs is to provide government policymakers and community decision-makers with more comprehensive and in-depth data on budgetary/fiscal stress, technology, administration, public health, and community health as decisions are made regarding resource allocation and policy development.

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Tags: covid, health, pandemic, indiana, state and local government, budget and finance

Authors: Charles D. Taylor, Dagney Faulk

Manufacturing Scorecard 2020

The Manufacturing Scorecard shows how each state ranks among its peers in several categories that are of particular interest to site selection experts for the manufacturing and logistics industries.

We provide a national report and a profile for Indiana. Information for all 50 states can be found at https://mfgscorecard.cberdata.org .

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Tags: manufacturing, transportation and logistics, workforce and human capital, indiana

Authors: Michael J. Hicks, Srikant Devaraj

How Many School-Age Children Lack Internet Access in Indiana?

This study explores regional variation in internet access among Indiana households with school-age children. The lack of access likely resulted in significant differences in the quality and quantity of school instruction received by Hoosier students during the Spring 2020 school closings caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Likewise, this lack of internet access will make virtual learning difficult for some children if schools opt to have online education for the upcoming school year.

Updated October 27, 2020.

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Tags: education, indiana, technology and automation, family and households, pandemic

Authors: Srikant Devaraj, Dagney Faulk, Michael J. Hicks, Yuye Zhang

Economic Effects of the Changing Energy Mix in Indiana

In this report, we examine the cost of different energy sources, evaluating the likely path of expenditures in Indiana across different sources of energy production. We then evaluate the local impact of these choices, focusing on impacts of renewable energy sources on the state.

Updated August 4, 2020.

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Tags: energy, indiana, sectors and industry clusters

Author: Michael J. Hicks

COVID-19 Effects on Indiana’s State and Local Taxes

The goal of this study is to help state and local policymakers better understand the fiscal impacts of the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic and aid with budget planning considerations. We also hope that our work will help federal policymakers understand the risks of diminished public services to state and local economies.

Published June 10, 2020; updated June 12, 2020.

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Tags: economic impact, disaster impact, health, indiana, taxes, law and public policy

Authors: Dagney Faulk, Michael J. Hicks, Srikant Devaraj

Indiana's Government Modernization Act & Local Government Consolidation Experiences: Process and Politics

This policy brief reviews the literature on local government consolidation, provides an overview of Indiana local government structure and the 2006 Government Modernization Act, and discusses seven consolidation attempts that have occurred between 2008 and 2012 under the GMA. A key feature of this analysis is a heightened focus on consolidation planning.

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Tags: law and public policy, indiana, consolidation and efficiency, government, taxes

Authors: Charles D. Taylor, Dagney Faulk, Pamela Schaal

Preliminary Fiscal Effects of COVID-19 on Indiana’s Local Tax Revenues

In this impact brief, we simulate the effects of COVID-19 and responses to the disease on local government tax revenues in the short run.

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Tags: health, disaster impact, economic impact, government, financial crisis

Authors: Srikant Devaraj, Dagney Faulk, Michael J. Hicks

What Will the Next Three Months Look Like? Simulating the Impact of Social Distancing on GDP and Employment

In this brief analysis, we provide a potential scope of the impact on employment in Indiana in the wake of COVID-19, providing simulations of the likely effect of extreme social distancing on the state’s economy in 2020.

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Tags: health, recession, disaster impact, indiana, employment

Authors: Michael J. Hicks, Dagney Faulk, Srikant Devaraj

Occupational Exposure to Social Distancing: A Preliminary Analysis Using O*NET Data

The growing risk of contracting COVID-19 has prompted calls in many nations to engage in Social Distancing. This is a deliberate effort to reduce the transmission of the disease in businesses, schools, and gathering places.

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Tags: employment, health, government, technology and automation, workforce and human capital, disaster impact

Authors: Michael J. Hicks, Dagney Faulk, Srikant Devaraj

Do Indiana Residents Spend Too Much on Healthcare?

This study examines per capita healthcare expenditures, hospital prices, and market concentration (monopolization) in Indiana, through the context of healthcare outcomes and behaviors. We construct a healthcare expenditure model of all 50 states and compare the per person expenditures in other states to Hoosier residents in 20 categories of potential causal factors.

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Tags: indiana, health, sectors and industry clusters

Authors: Michael J. Hicks, Srikant Devaraj

The 2020 Economic Forecast for the United States, Midwest, and East Central Indiana

We review changes in U.S. employment and output, with considerations for the manufacturing and housing industries. We then provide the 2020 forecast and predict economic performance at the state and local levels.

Indiana Economic Outlook event sponsored by First Merchants. Presented Dec. 11, 2019.

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Tags: economy, forecasts, manufacturing, taxes, indiana, incentives and programs

Author: Michael J. Hicks

Local Government Responses to Property Tax Rate Caps: An Analysis of Indiana Municipal Governments

Published December 6, 2019

This policy brief investigates local government responses to revenue decreases caused by property tax rate caps. Using data on 28 municipal governments in Indiana, we examine the extent to which they utilize two policy options available for managing declining revenues. We find that Indiana municipalities did engage in strategies to reduce budgets and employment and also increase revenue since the implementation of tax rate caps.

Produced in partnership with the Bowen Center for Public Affairs at Ball State University.

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Tags: indiana, government, housing and real estate, taxes

Authors: Dagney Faulk, Charles D. Taylor, Pamela Schaal

The Use of GDP Data to Analyze Economic Development Priorities

In this study, we analyze some of the most pertinent aspects of a regional economy—the roles played by capital, labor, and productivity growth. We exploit the recently released data on county-level gross domestic product (GDP) to evaluate a number of policy-relevant issues across Indiana.

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Tags: economic development, workforce and human capital, unemployment and Skills Gap, population growth and migration, indiana

Author: Michael J. Hicks

Indiana Has a Monopoly Problem in Healthcare; Preliminary evidence and recommendations

This policy brief provides preliminary analysis as to the degree of competition in Indiana's healthcare markets. We conclude that evidence strongly suggests healthcare markets in Indiana experience significant monopoly power, which has increased prices, allowed not-for-profit providers to accrue stunningly large profits, increased the burden on Hoosier families, and likely reduced healthcare outcomes across the state.

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Tags: health, indiana, law and public policy, insurance and worker benefits

Author: Michael J. Hicks

Manufacturing Scorecard 2019

The Manufacturing Scorecard shows how each state ranks among its peers in several categories that are of particular interest to site selection experts for the manufacturing and logistics industries.

We provide a national report and a profile for Indiana. Information for all 50 states can be found at https://mfgscorecard.cberdata.org .

Download

Tags: indiana, manufacturing, transportation and logistics, workforce and human capital

Authors: Michael J. Hicks, Srikant Devaraj

Immigration Effects: Regions 7-12

We examine population change, education levels, wealth, and background statistics of foreign-born Hoosiers in each Economic Growth/Workforce Development region.

  • Region 7 counties: Clay, Parke, Putnam, Sullivan, Vermillion, and Vigo
  • Region 8 counties: Brown, Daviess, Greene, Lawrence, Martin, Monroe, Orange, and Owen
  • Region 9 counties: Bartholomew, Dearborn, Decatur, Franklin, Jackson, Jefferson, Jennings, Ohio, Ripley, and Switzerland
  • Region 10 counties: Clark, Crawford, Floyd, Harrison, Scott, and Washington
  • Region 11 counties: Dubois, Gibson, Knox, Perry, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, and Warrick
  • Region 12: Marion County

See also:

Indiana Regions 1-6: https://projects.cberdata.org/162/immigration-regions-1-6

Immigration Study: https://projects.cberdata.org/161/immigration-in-the-hoosier-state

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Tags: indiana, population growth and migration

Author: Emily J. Wornell

Immigration Effects: Regions 1-6

We examine population change, education levels, wealth, and background statistics of foreign-born Hoosiers in each Economic Growth/Workforce Development region.

  • Region 1 counties: Jasper, Lake, LaPorte, Newton, Porter, Pulaski, and Starke
  • Region 2 counties: Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, Marshall, and St. Joseph
  • Region 3 counties: Adams, Allen, DeKalb, Grant, Huntington, LaGrange, Noble, Steuben, Wabash, Wells, and Whitley
  • Region 4 counties: Benton, Carroll, Cass, Clinton, Fountain, Howard, Miami, Montgomery, Tippecanoe, Tipton, Warren, and White
  • Region 5 counties: Boone, Hamilton, Hancock, Hendricks, Johnson, Madison, Morgan, and Shelby
  • Region 6 counties: Blackford, Delaware, Fayette, Henry, Jay, Randolph, Rush, Union, and Wayne

See also:

Indiana Regions 7-12: https://projects.cberdata.org/163/immigration-regions-7-12

Immigration Study: https://projects.cberdata.org/161/immigration-in-the-hoosier-state

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Tags: indiana, population growth and migration

Author: Emily J. Wornell